On 22nd April over 120 people attended the conference organized by the Henry Dunant Lodge in Geneva on April 22nd. The speaker was Professor André Kaspi who spoke about “Foreign Politics of President Obama”. Professor Kaspi is a specialist, recognised in the United States. He wrote a great number of books on this country and often spoke on different French radio networks during the last elections in the U.S. to enlighten his audience.

The arrival of Obama brought a great deal of hope in the world but also aroused certain fears on the evolution of American foreign politics.

Professor Kaspi started by expressing his surprise on the American election procedure: the elimination of Mrs. Clinton from the democratic investiture; the election of Barak Obama; the choice of Mrs. Clinton as Secretary of State, and the fact that she accepted.

The trust and popularity of President Obama around the world is impressive : the first mixed-race (black for the Americans) President, having attended the best American universities;  from a generation that has hardly  suffered racial discrimination ; coming from a middle class family ; charismatic; in total opposition to the former administration.  He is therefore benefiting from the disastrous image left by President Georges W. Bush and arouses high hopes in the world.

The new administration showed its will of openness, in particular vis-à-vis Iran and Syria, which it considers are the major protagonists in Middle East politics, and Latin America by relaxing its relationship with Cuba and opening a dialogue with Venezuela and Bolivia.

It also showed pragmatism with China that becomes the partner that cannot be ignored because of its privileged economical relationship with the United States. China owns about 20% of Treasury bonds issued by the United States. The prosperity of America depends on export to China. China also becomes a major actor in Africa and Latin America because of their wish to control sources of raw material. In fact, Mrs. Clinton’s first visit was to China where she avoided speaking on controversial subjects, in particular Human Rights and Tibet.

Also, pragmatism towards Russia that  has important oil resources which could be useful in relations with Iran, but can hardly live with the American presence in its reserved area of the new Asian republics, resulting in many measures with Russia essentially on the subjects of Georgia and Ukraine. Both these States wish to get closer to NATO, against the advice of the Russians. Regarding Israel, he considers that support of the United States is not to be questioned and that American diplomacy will do everything possible to settle the Israeli-Arab conflict. 

Professor Kaspi underlined the fact that we may have bad surprises. First of all, he pointed out that during his investiture ceremony, President Obama wanted his second forename, Hussein, be pronounced. He was also surprised that in his investiture speech, President Obama had claimed that America was composed of Christians, Muslims, Jews and Buddhists. In fact the Muslim population only comes, at best, in third position, the United States being essentially a Judeo Christian society.

Professor Kaspi stressed that the United States hopes to speak to the “moderate” Talibans, a very vague notion that could, in a long term, result in abandoning Afghanistan and a lot of casualties in the NATO coalition for nothing. His discussions with Iran could turn out to be at the advantage of Iran, if Iran effectively acquires nuclear weapons in which case the United State’s margin in these negotiations would be extremely reduced.

Professor Kaspi therefore feels that President Obama, in spite of his charisma and the esteem he has, could very well find himself in a position similar to that of President Carter, who did not remain as a great president of the United States, but rather a president that weakened the United States.

Report by Michel Benveniste